National distinguished elementary and middle school principals anticipate that digital learning technologies will significantly shape schools and their jobs in the next fifteen years, according to their evaluation of key trends and issues at a recent event in Washington, D.C.

The National Elementary School Principals has commissioned the Institute for Alternative Futures to study the future of the principalship as part of its Vision 2021 project. IAF Senior Futurist Marsha Rhea introduced futures methodologies and a first impression of key trends to the NAESP Board of Directors Oct. 25 and the 65 National Distinguished Principals Oct. 27.

In an initial survey of trends and issues, these school leaders reported that digital learning technologies will continue to change the way teachers teach and students learn. They find it challenging to keep up with today’s digital natives, young people who have grown up with computers. Yet these technologies are spurring learning innovations that are transforming schools and leading some principals to wonder whether brick-and-mortar schools will be edged out by virtual schools.

Rhea observed that social institutions are much slower to change and for good reason. Social institutions have many attributes that people value. Parents may value safe and caring environments where young children can learn, or they may be unable to teach their children because they must work. For these reasons, virtual schools are unlikely to completely replace site-based schools any time soon.

The elementary and middle school principals were intrigued by the need to globalize the curriculum to prepare students to be global citizens. They also identified the educational needs of an increasingly multicultural society as a top priority. The nation’s “minority-majority” society will be evident in younger generations first and schools are already on the frontlines of this societal transition. By 2021, 44.7% of children will be ethnic or racial minorities.

The principals also agreed on one current trend that will continue into the future, that education is not an economic priority. In the next 15 years, the nation must address Medicare, social security and rising health costs as well as mitigate long postponed infrastructure needs such as transportation and utilities. This is a particularly troubling outlook because these principals are already concerned about the persistent reality of uneven per pupil funding across school districts and states.

IAF will provide NAESP a futures report with an overview of trends and issues and research on a set of provocative forecasts. Next spring IAF futurists will work with selected leaders to frame 2021 scenarios for the profession. Next summer IAF and NAESP will build on this research about the future of the principalship to set the future direction for the association as it responds to anticipated opportunities and challenges.