The National Association of Elementary School Principals commissioned the Institute for Alternative Futures to conduct an environmental scan to understand how schools and the principalship may change over the next 14 years. In this overview, IAF analyzes how current and emerging trends and developments evident in 2006 might play out to create a preferred future.

The future can never be predicted. Something truly unexpected is certain to happen, but principals who prepare for the probable future will be better able to adapt to the inevitable surprises from a dynamic universe. This is a high-level and systematic overview of external and internal forces. IAF examined social, technological, economic, environmental, political and values trends and developments. Below are highlights of these six trends. Click here to download a PDF of this report which includes complete citations of the sources used in IAF's environmental scan.

Social & Demographic Trends: IAF found that schools will be at the forefront of demographic and social change. Retiring baby boomers will yield to the generations of pragmatic Gen Xers and diverse Millennials. The nation will be transitioning into a majority-minority population with schools the first institutions to experience these changing needs. English proficiency will be a growing early education challenge as the number of immigrants grows.

Technology Developments: Schools will gain new capabilities from digital technologies. Students will connect to interactive learning stations that link their classrooms to vast resources. Online communities and games will engage students and parents. And principals will find technology expedites school operations.

Economic Trends: Economic pressures will continue to squeeze school budgets. Federal and state government will be squeezed by entitlements that come due. A diverse and growing student body will place pressure on finances. Schools will need to make changes in compensation to support talented teachers and principals.

Environmental Trends: Environmental priorities will impact schools as they become the center of environmental stewardship. Children will learn in green buildings, and schools will teach healthy living.

Political Trends: Political control of schools will shift from school districts upward to the federal and state government and downward to parents and principals. No Child Left Behind will continue to dominate school policy. The school choice movement will favor more parental control and potentially give principals more leverage.

Values: Schools serve society's changing values. NCLB works as a public policy because it reflects public preference for accountability and choice. Values will shift back to recognizing that democracy also demands educational equity and educating for the whole child.


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